I will make this prediction for Election Day 2009. The chattering class and the punditry will say that the big loser was President Obama. I suspect that many already have their columns already written and are just waiting to fill in some numbers. They will say that this non federal election was a referendum on the Obama presidency. They will say that the results do not bode well for his programs and policies. They will say that he must re-group; they will call on the President to surround himself with some wise old DC hands and suggest that Rahm should resign. The Fox set will be full of joy and gloat that the American people agree with them and have turned their backs on the President. The addicts who lead the Republican Party from the lofty perches of radio will take credit for the humiliating Presidential defeat. They will say all that and more.
They will be of course overly dramatic and they will of course be wrong.
These local elections tomorrow have nothing to do with President Obama. Tip O’Neil once commented that all politics is local and that is exactly what this election is, local. People will not be carrying the President into the ballot box tomorrow. The elections being held tomorrow are about local issues and home town concerns. We are not voting on war, we are not voting on health care, we are not voting on relations with Iran and we are not voting on this President’s less than nine months in office.
We will be voting on how our schools are run, how our streets are cleaned, and the type of person sitting on our local courts and in two very different states we will be voting for governor. Our concerns this election day are far removed from the fights and intrigue of Washington DC but the big talkers will convince themselves that this election is about what is going on in Washington DC. They will of course be talking about themselves to themselves; they will not be talking about how we live day to day here in Bethlehem or Easton.
Here’s what’s going to happen tomorrow:
New York City Mayor: Mayor Bloomberg wins a third term. He really is a Democrat, he ran as a Republican for his first two terms because he thought it would be the cheapest nomination to buy. Now, he is running as an Independent on the Republican line. He deserves to win even though his serving a third term may be illegal.
Governor of Virginia: The Republican will win and not because the voters hate Obama. He will win because the Dems have been in the Governors seat for 8 years and it’s time for a change. The Democrat deserves to lose after running one of the worst campaigns since Billy Carter ran for office in the late 1970’s.
Governor of New Jersey: Tossup. John Corzine has done a really bad job. The Democrats have so dominated the states politics for such a long time people just really want a change. Again, this is all local and has nothing to do with Michelle Obama’s arms. The Democrats are viewed as corrupt and incompetent and the people of the garden state are just exhausted by them.
NY 23: Who the hell knows? The GOP candidate just dropped out because she had no support within the party leadership, they are supporting the Conservative Party candidate. The Republican nominee has endorsed the Democrat. The last time a Democrat won this seat was in the 1870’s. No one is predicting this bad boy.
That’s it my brilliant readers. That is the extent of the political races that the chattering class will say is a referendum on the President of the United States. They will say it but we do not have to believe them. Send them a tweet or an e-mail telling them that they are wrong and if they want to discuss it further they can meet us at the bar of Hotel Bethlehem and we can clarify their thinking and leave them with the tab as punishment for their shallow stupidity.